Feb 06, 2024 School Board Special Meeting

[1. CALL TO ORDER]

[00:00:11]

>> THE TIME IS NOW 06:00 PM AND I CALL THE FEBRUARY 6TH, 2024 MEETING OF THE EANES ISD BOARD OF TRUSTEES TO ORDER.

MADAM SECRETARY, DO WE HAVE A QUORUM?

[3. CLOSED SESSION]

>> WE DO.

>> THANK YOU. WE WILL NOW MOVE INTO CLOSED SESSION PURSUANT TO TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE SECTIONS 551.071 AND 551.074.

WE WILL RECONVENE IN OPEN SESSION AT APPROXIMATELY 07:00 PM.

THANK YOU. SEE YOU IN A BIT.

THE TIME IS NOW 7:03 AND WE WILL RECONVENE IN OPEN SESSION.

[4. RECONVENE INTO OPEN SESSION (Approximately 7:00 p.m.)]

REAL QUICK, THE PURPOSE OF TONIGHT'S MEETING IS FOR THE BOARD TO DELIBERATE AND VOTE ON MATTERS LISTED ON THE AGENDA.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PUBLIC TO SPEAK LATER, BUT NO ONE SIGNED UP FOR THIS MEETING.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AND WE WILL NOW BEGIN OUR AGENDA.

[5. SUPERINTENDENT'S REPORT]

>> THANK YOU, EVERYONE. WELCOME THIS EVENING.

JUST A FEW VERY QUICK UPDATES.

WANTED TO SHARE SOME GOOD NEWS FROM WESTLAKE HIGH SCHOOL.

THE FINAL DRAFT, WHICH IS WESTLAKE'S LITERARY AND VISUAL ARTS MAGAZINE, WAS AWARDED THE PRESTIGIOUS RANK OF SUPERIOR FROM THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF TEACHERS OF ENGLISH FOR LAST YEAR'S LANDMARK 40TH EDITION CALLED EPHEMERAL PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE.

THE REALM WHICH IS RECOGNIZING EXCELLENCE IN ART AND LITERARY MAGAZINES PROGRAM PUBLICLY RECOGNIZES EXCELLENT LITERARY MAGAZINES PRODUCED BY STUDENTS.

LAST YEAR, SCHOOLS IN 46 STATES AND FIVE COUNTRIES NOMINATED 375 STUDENT MAGAZINES.

CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR STUDENTS AND STAFF AT WESTLAKE HIGH SCHOOL.

THIS PAST WEEK WE ALL ENJOYED SHREK.

THOSE OF YOU WHO HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE MUSICAL, IT WAS OUTSTANDING.

AS ALWAYS, OUR STUDENTS ARE INCREDIBLY TALENTED.

BUT ALSO WANTED TO MENTION ANOTHER PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT THAT SOME OF US HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO ATTEND, THE UNITED STATES NAVY BAND FROM WASHINGTON, DC, PERFORMED IN THE PACK AT THE HIGH SCHOOL.

HAD A GREAT AUDIENCE AND SOME OF OUR STUDENTS WERE EVEN FEATURED ALONGSIDE OF THESE PROFESSIONAL MUSICIANS SO THAT WAS A VERY SPECIAL EVENING FOR THE HIGH SCHOOL AND A REAL PRIVILEGE TO HOST THEM.

TO BORROW A PHRASE FROM A WELL KNOWN POP STAR WHO SAYS A LOT GOING ON AT THE MOMENT, HERE'S A REAL QUICK LOOK AT A VARIETY OF THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING IN THE DISTRICT THIS MONTH.

THIS IS, OF COURSE, BLACK HISTORY MONTH.

WE LOVE AUSTIN MUSIC WEEK, WAS LAST WEEK AT SEVERAL OF OUR SCHOOLS.

TODAY, AS A MATTER OF FACT AND THIS WEEK IS NATIONAL SCHOOL COUNSELORS WEEK RECOGNIZING THEM.

WE ALSO JUST CELEBRATED THE 100TH DAY OF SCHOOL.

OUR ELEMENTARIES ALL HAVE A GREAT TIME WITH THAT.

THEN FEBRUARY 15TH IS SCHOOL RESOURCE OFFICER APPRECIATION DAY.

WE HAVE DEPUTY PORTER WHO'S HERE WITH US TONIGHT FROM TRAVIS COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE.

THEN A COUPLE OF UPCOMING EVENING AND EVENTS FOR PARENTS.

WE HAVE A SPANISH IMMERSION OPEN HOUSE ON FEBRUARY 15TH AT VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY AND THEN, OF COURSE, KINDERGARTEN ROUND UP.

A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THIS YEAR, BUT IT'S ON FEBRUARY 21ST, AND ALL OF OUR SCHOOLS ARE GETTING READY FOR THAT SO THAT WE CAN WELCOME OUR PROSPECTIVE KINDERGARTENERS FOR THE '24, '25 SCHOOL YEAR.

THAT CONCLUDES MY REPORT FOR THIS EVENING.

>> THANK YOU. WE WILL NOW MOVE INTO OPEN FORUM.

HOWEVER, WE HAVE NO SPEAKERS SIGNED UP THIS EVENING SO WE WILL MOVE ONTO OUR AGENDA.

[7.1 District Demographic Report]

WE'RE HAVING TECHNICAL ISSUE.

>> I APOLOGIZE.

I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THAT TRICK.

LET ME START OVER. GOOD EVENING, TRUSTEES.

I AM JOINED TONIGHT BY BOB TEMPLETON WITH ZONDA EDUCATION TO PRESENT AN UPDATE ON THE 2024 DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT FOR THE DISTRICT.

I AM SUPER EXCITED TO HAVE BOB HERE PRESENTING THIS INFORMATION.

HIM AND HIS TEAM BEEN DOING THIS WORK FOR OVER 20 YEARS,

[00:05:03]

HE'S A TRUSTED NAME, HAS AN INCREDIBLE TEAM, AND SO I'M SO GLAD THAT WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO PARTNER WITH HIM AND HIS TEAM ON DEMOGRAPHICS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS.

I'M GOING TO TAKE A STEP BACK AND LET BOB INTRODUCE HIMSELF, BUT ALSO RUN THROUGH THIS REPORT, AND AT THE END, WE'LL TAKE ALL OF YOUR QUESTIONS AND HOPEFULLY WE CAN NAVIGATE ALL OF WHAT WE REPORT TONIGHT.

>> THANK YOU. IT IS MY PLEASURE TO BE HERE TONIGHT. THANK YOU.

I'VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR ABOUT 25 YEARS IN THE STATE OF TEXAS.

I HAVE A PASSION FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND PLANNING.

BOTH MY PARENTS WERE SUPERINTENDENTS.

MY WIFE TAUGHT FOR MANY YEARS, MY DAUGHTER TAUGHT FOR MANY YEARS.

WE REALLY WANT TO SERVE SCHOOL DISTRICTS TO HELP THEM BE PROACTIVE IN THEIR PLANNING.

IT'S BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DO WHAT WE DO.

IT USED TO BE SO SIMPLE, WHEN IT WAS, WE COUNTED HOUSES, WE KNEW THE YIELD OF HOUSES.

WE DO AN AMAZING JOB WITH RESEARCH.

OVER THE LAST, I'D SAY SEVEN YEARS, WE REALLY HAVE SEEN THE EXPANSION OF CHARTER TO SCHOOLS.

THAT'S NOT A REAL BIG ISSUE FOR YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE SEE IN AUSTIN, AT A BIG RATE.

WE WORK WITH ABOUT A DOZEN SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN THE AUSTIN REGION.

THE CHARTER EXPANSIONS, AND THEN MOST RECENTLY WITH THE PANDEMICS, IMPACT ON HOME SCHOOL ENROLLMENT.

HOME SCHOOL ENROLLMENT HAS LIKELY TRIPLED IN THE LAST THREE YEARS.

IT'S A LITTLE HARD TO QUANTIFY THAT BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT REQUIRED TO REPORT TO TEA SO WE GATHERED THAT INFORMATION THROUGH RESEARCH, INTERVIEWING THE TEXAS HOME SCHOOL ASSOCIATION, ALTHOUGH HOME SCHOOL FAMILIES ARE NOT REQUIRED TO JOIN THE ASSOCIATION, BUT IT DOES GIVE US AN IDEA OF THE TRENDS.

I ATTENDED THE TEXAS HOME SCHOOL CONFERENCE THIS PAST SUMMER, HELD IN ROUND ROCK, TEXAS.

THEY FILLED UP THE KALAHARI RESORT, OVER 7,000 IN ATTENDANCE, 130 VENDORS AT THEIR TRADE SHOW.

I INTERVIEWED ABOUT 30 COUPLES.

TO MY SURPRISE, IT WAS NOT SOLELY ABOUT IDEOLOGY OR ABOUT A CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT TO THE HOME SCHOOL.

THE MAJORITY OF THE COUPLES THAT I INTERVIEWED WERE MILLENNIALS, AND IT WAS ABOUT FLEXIBILITY AND CONTROL OF CURRICULUM, CONTROL OF CONTENT, NOT A SERIOUS IDEOLOGY ISSUE.

THAT SURPRISED ME.

I'LL JUMP OFF OF MY LITTLE SIDEBAR THERE.

I DO THINK THAT HOME SCHOOL IS SOMETHING THAT CAN HAVE AN IMPACT HERE.

WHAT I ALSO OBSERVED ABOUT THE HOME SCHOOL GROUP WAS THERE WAS A FLUENCY THERE AND IT WAS RELATED TO ONE OF THE PARENTS NOT WORKING AND HAVING THAT FLEXIBILITY.

I SAY THAT BECAUSE OF YOUR DEMOGRAPHICS AND THAT MY SON IN LAW IS A DOCTOR AND MY DAUGHTER HAS A THREE YEAR OLD AND A TWO YEAR OLD AND SHE'S TALKING ABOUT HOME SCHOOLING.

WHY IS SHE TALKING ABOUT IT? BECAUSE AGAIN, IT'S ABOUT FLEXIBILITY.

IT'S NOT ABOUT ANYTHING ABOUT THE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT THAT THEY LIVE IN, BUT IT'S ABOUT THAT FLEXIBILITY.

LET ME GO BACK.

I WANT TO LOOK JUST BRIEFLY AT YOUR ENROLLMENT HISTORY.

THIS IS A LOOK BACK OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

THIS IS BASICALLY YOUR SNAPSHOT FALL ENROLLMENT.

YOU'LL NOTICE THE YELLOW CELL IS THE LARGEST GRADE PER YEAR.

THE GREEN CELL IS THE SECOND LARGEST GRADE PER YEAR.

YOU CAN SEE HOW YOUR ENROLLMENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS HAS GONE DOWN.

SOME OF THAT DID START WITH THE PANDEMIC.

YOU CAN SEE IN THAT 2020, '21 YEAR, WHEN YOUR ENROLLMENT DROPPED ABOUT 200 KIDS.

SOME OF THAT WAS LIKELY PANDEMIC RELATED.

WE SAW ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS, THE ENROLLMENT DROPPED ABOUT 70,000 KIDS.

THIS WAS A PHENOMENON THAT WE SAW ALL ACROSS THE STATE.

NOW YOU'LL ALSO NOTICE OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, 2021-2022 A LITTLE BIT OF A DROP THERE.

I WOULD ATTRIBUTE MOST OF THAT TO WHAT I WOULD CALL IS THE AGING OF YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT.

IT'S NOT THAT YOU'RE LOSING ENROLLMENT, IT'S THAT YOU'RE GRADUATING MORE THAN IS COMING IN.

IT LOOKS LIKE THAT YOU'RE LOSING ENROLLMENT.

WELL, YOU'RE REALLY NOT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE GRADE LEVEL NUMBERS, THERE'S CONSISTENT STEADY GROWTH BETWEEN FIRST TO SECOND, SECOND TO THIRD.

YOU CAN LOOK HISTORICALLY AT THAT COHORT TABLE, AND THE GOLD BAR AT THE BOTTOM IS THE ACTUAL GRADE LEVEL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR.

YOU CAN SEE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINDERGARTEN.

KINDERGARTEN ACTUALLY DROPPED, THAT'S ABOUT A 7.5% DROP, THAT 0.924.

BUT LOOK AT FIRST, SECOND, THIRD, FOUR, FIFTH, SIXTH, SEVENTH, EIGHTH, NINTH.

[00:10:01]

THEY GREW AT THAT 5-6% WHILE YOUR OVERALL ENROLLMENT WAS FLAT THIS YEAR.

IF YOU LOOK AT GRADE LEVEL, YOUR NET GROWTH WAS ACTUALLY POSITIVE.

AGAIN, IT'S BECAUSE YOU'RE SWIMMING UPSTREAM, BECAUSE YOU'RE GRADUATING MORE THAN IS COMING IN.

NOW, SOME OF THAT CAN BE RELATED TO BIRTH RATE ISSUES.

THERE ARE CHANGES IN THE BIRTH RATE THAT HAS AFFECTED POPULATION GROWTH.

I WOULD ALSO SAY THERE'S ALSO SOME OF THAT TIED TO THE FACT THAT YOUR HOUSING IS SO EXPENSIVE AND THAT WE TEND TO SEE NOT AS MANY YOUNGER FAMILIES WITH REALLY YOUNG KIDS BUYING.

THESE TEND TO BE SECOND OR THIRD HOME PURCHASES.

THIS IS NOT A FIRST TIME HOME PURCHASE TO BUY A HOME IN YOUR DISTRICT, SO THEREFORE, THAT'S LIKELY AT PLAY AS WELL.

NOW, THE AUSTIN REGION IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST REGIONS IN THE COUNTRY, ECONOMICALLY.

WE HAVE VERY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT.

WE HAVE CONSISTENT, STEADY JOB GROWTH SO ECONOMICALLY, WHILE THERE IS SOME CLOUDINESS WITH INFLATION AND WITH SOME TENSION IN THE ECONOMY, WE'RE STILL SEEING JOB GROWTH IN TEXAS, WE'RE STILL SEEING POPULATION GROWTH.

THERE IS SOME PRESSURE IN THE HOUSING MARKET BECAUSE OF THE RISING INTEREST RATES THAT WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF.

THE INTEREST RATES HAVE STABILIZED.

THE FED DID NOT RAISE THE RATE WHEN THEY MET LAST AND WE ARE ECONOMISTS, WE ZONE BELIEVE THE INTEREST RATES ARE NOT GOING TO KEEP GOING UP.

THEY COULD START TO ACTUALLY START TO GO DOWN.

WE DEFINITELY THINK BY 2025 THE INTEREST RATES WILL START TO SOFTEN, BUT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GET BACK TO 3% UNLESS THERE'S A REAL PROBLEM.

THEY LIKELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THAT 5% RANGE, MAYBE 4.5-5%, WHICH WOULD BE HELPFUL.

NOW LOOKING AT A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT OF YOUR DISTRICT.

THIS IS FROM THE CENSUS DATA, THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, WHICH IS UPDATED EACH YEAR, BUT IT'S A SAMPLING SURVEY.

THE POPULATION TOTAL POPULATION WITHIN YOUR BOUNDARY OF YOUR DISTRICT IS ABOUT 38,400.

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IS ABOUT 14,000.

HOUSEHOLD SIZE IS 2.68, WHICH IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.

WE TEND TO SEE 2.4, 2.5 WITH SOME OF OUR CLIENTS, BUT YOUR AVERAGE OR YOUR MEDIAN AGE IS A LITTLE HIGHER? I WAS IN SPRING BRANCH LAST NIGHT AND THEIRS IS ABOUT 37 IS THEIR MEDIAN AGE.

THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE HIGHEST MEDIAN AGES FROM THIS REPORT THAT I'VE RUN FOR MY CLIENTS.

SHIRT [INAUDIBLE] I'M GOING TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEIRS IS 36 IS THE MEDIAN AGE.

YOU CAN ALSO SEE IT FROM YOUR BREAKDOWN OF THE POPULATION BY GENERATION.

YOU'RE 23.1, THAT'S THE BOOMERS.

YOUR GENERATION X AND GENERATION Z, THOSE ARE YOUR THREE LARGEST GENERATION GROUPS.

BUT THE BOOMERS ARE MY AGE AND OLDER.

THOSE ARE NOW THE GRANDPARENTS, QUITE HONESTLY.

THOSE ARE THE GRANDPARENTS IN THE DISTRICT.

THE GEN X'S ARE STARTING TO BE GRANDPARENTS AS WELL.

MY WIFE'S A GEN X.

THE MILLENNIALS ARE YOURS, OF YOUNGER KIDS.

THE YOUNGER ONES. IT'S ABOUT A 17-YEAR BRACKET FROM THOSE GENERATIONS.

THE GENERATION A IS THE NEWEST ONE, AND THAT'S WHY IT HAS SUCH A SMALL PERCENTAGES BECAUSE IT'S NOT THE SAME NUMBER OF YEARS.

THE OTHER THING THAT STANDS OUT FROM YOUR DEMOGRAPHIC DATA, AND I'M SURE YOU'RE AWARE OF THIS, LOOK AT YOUR HOME VALUES.

YOUR HOME VALUES ARE WAY UP, OVER A MILLION.

THE YEAR BUILT MOSTLY IN THE '80S AND '90S.

THE '80S AND '90S IS WHEN THE BULK OF YOUR HOUSING WAS BUILT.

THIS IS FROM THE CENSUS DATA, SO IT DOESN'T INCLUDE THE DATA THAT'S FROM 2020 TO NOW, BUT WE DO TRACK ALL OF THE HOUSING THAT'S TAKING PLACE.

SOME OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ASPECTS HERE.

THE EMPLOYMENT, THIS IS ALSO ONE OF THE HIGHEST ONES I'VE SEEN FOR WHITE COLLAR.

IF WE RAN THIS FOR SOUTHLAKE CARROLL, SOUTHLAKE CARROLLS WOULD LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THIS.

SPRING BRANCHES DID NOT LOOK QUITE THIS HIGH.

THEY'RE TWO HALVES OF THEIR DISTRICT.

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, VERY AFFLUENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, NOT THE SAME FLUENCY.

THIS WAS INTERESTING BECAUSE THIS IS SHOWING WHAT WE'RE NOW STARTING TO TRACK IS YOUR CAPTURE RATE.

HOW MUCH OF YOUR ESTIMATED STUDENT ENROLLMENT, WHICH IS FROM THE CENSUS DATA, SO THE 5-9, 10-14, 15-19.

THAT'S HOW THE CENSUS BREAKS DOWN THE POPULATION GROUPS.

WE COMPARED THAT TO YOUR ENROLLMENT, IN 2020, YOU WERE CAPTURING ABOUT 82.4% AND IN '23, IT'S UP TO ABOUT 95%.

THE TRANSFER PIECE IS WHAT IS SKEWING THAT UP.

THAT'S WHY I BELIEVE THAT THAT NUMBER IS UP.

[00:15:02]

THIS IS BRAND NEW DATA THAT WE'RE STARTING TO REPORT.

THIS IS THE HIGHEST CAPTURE RATE OF DISTRICTS THAT I'VE RUN THIS FOR.

>> WHAT TIME OF THE YEAR IS THE CAPTURE RATE?

>> ENROLLMENT IS FROM THE FALL.

>> IT'S FROM THE PIN.

>> AS CLOSE AS WE CAN GET IT TO IS THE PINS.

THE 2020 WOULD BE FROM THE SNAPSHOT.

>> THAT WAS THE FALL OF 2020.

THAT WAS WHEN WE WERE HIGH AT THE POINTED.

>> YOUR NUMBER ACTUALLY PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 200 HIGHER HAD YOU NOT HAD THAT COVID LOSS.

>> DYSPHORIA.

>> DYSPHORIA IS A GOOD WORD FOR THAT.

BUT NO, I THINK THE REALITY IS, THOUGH, WHAT STANDS OUT TO ME IS YOUR CAPTURE RATE IS HIGH AND NOW IT'S AT 95.

AGAIN, WE'RE REFINING, AS WE LOOK AT THIS DATA, I PROBABLY SHOULD TAKE THE TRANSFERS OUT AND THEN DO IT ON BOTH ENDS TO SEE WHAT THE RESIDE IS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY AND THEN DO THAT COMPARISON.

>> BECAUSE WE HAD TRANSFERS IN 2020 AND ALMOST AS MANY AS WE HAVE NOW, AS WELL AS EMPLOYEE.

>> THE OTHER UNDERLYING ISSUE HERE IS OVERALL, THE AGE OF THE POPULATION IS GOING DOWN.

THE SCHOOL AGE POPULATION IS GOING DOWN, AND THE OVERALL POPULATION IS AGING.

THAT'S THE TAKEAWAY THAT I GAINED FROM LOOKING AT THE CENSUS DATA.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS YEAR'S KINDERGARTEN NUMBER, IT'S THE LOWEST THAT IT'S BEEN IN A LONG TIME.

THAT IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TO YOUR ENROLLMENT BECAUSE OF WHAT'S COMING INTO THE PIPELINE IS SO MUCH LESS THAN WHAT'S IN THOSE SECONDARY GRADES.

WHEN WE GET TO THE PROJECTIONS, THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY GOING TO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR THERE.

THIS IS TOTAL HOME SALES WITHIN THE DISTRICT.

YOU CAN SEE THAT '21, WE HAD ABOUT 950 HOME CELLS, '20, 950.

THE HOME CELLS REALLY DROPPED OFF OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS.

THE OTHER IMPACT OF THE HIGH INTEREST RATES IS THERE'S LESS INVENTORY BECAUSE SO MANY OF THE HOMEOWNERS ARE NOT WANTING TO SELL THEIR HOMES AND BUY A DIFFERENT HOME BECAUSE THEIR INTEREST RATES ARE SO GOOD.

PEOPLE REALLY TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THAT 3% SEASON.

IT'S SOMEWHERE AROUND 70% OF ALL THE MORTGAGES IN TEXAS ARE IN THAT 3-4% RANGE.

THE HIGH INTEREST RATE IS CAUSING A SUPPLY OF EXISTING HOMES, FOLKS ARE STAYING IN THEIR HOMES LONGER, SO WE DON'T HAVE THAT TURN.

YOU NEED THE TURN.

YOU NEED THE TURN TO THEN CAUSE SOME FAMILIES TO COME IN TO HAVE SCHOOL AGED KIDS.

AVERAGE PRICE HAS GONE UP FOR A NEW HOME TO OVER $2 MILLION.

THERE'S NOT A TON OF THOSE, BUT THERE ARE SOME OF THOSE BEING BUILT.

THE AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF AN EXISTING HOME IS NOW 1.9 MILLION.

THIS IS THE HIGHEST OF ANY OF THE DISTRICTS THAT WE WORK WITH.

AGAIN, CARROLL'S WOULD BE CLOSE, BUT NOT THIS HIGHLAND PARK.

YOU'RE LOOKING AT HIGHLAND PARK, YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOUTHLAKE CARROLL WOULD BE COMPARABLE IN THE HOUSING STOCK.

>> BOB?

>> YES.

>> IN PREVIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTS, LET'S SAY GO BACK 10 YEARS, I'VE BEEN TOLD THAT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS UNIQUE TO OUR DISTRICT AND PERHAPS HIGHLAND PARK, IS THAT WHEN WHEN THEIR KIDS GRADUATE, THEY DON'T NECESSARILY MOVE AWAY.

THAT'S DIFFERENT FROM A LOT OF PLACES.

NOW, THE FACT THAT SCHOOL TAXES ARE SOMEWHAT EQUALIZED ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS HAS MINIMIZED THAT.

BUT DO YOU STILL SEE THAT TREND IN NEIGHBORHOODS LIKE THIS?

>> YES, BECAUSE OF THE AGE OF ME AND MY PEERS, WE ALL STAYED IN OUR HOUSES WHILE OUR KIDS WERE IN COLLEGE.

WHEN DID WE START MOVING? WHEN OUR KIDS STARTED HAVING KIDS, THAT'S WHEN WE STARTED MOVING.

WE LEFT THE KELLER AREA AND NOW I LIVE IN WACO.

WHY DO I LIVE IN WACO? TO BE NEAR MY DAUGHTER AND HER FAMILY, WITH THEIR GRANDKIDS.

SO TO YOUR POINT, WE DO SEE THAT THOSE FAMILIES ARE DOWNSIZING OR MOVING TO THOSE DIFFERENT AREAS LATER, AND THE OTHER THING IS KIDS ARE STAYING IN COLLEGE LONGER.

THEY'RE TAKING A GAP YEAR BEFORE THEY EVEN START COLLEGE.

THAT WHOLE EXPERIENCE IS BEING REALLY PUSHED BACK TO WHERE WE DON'T SEE THAT TYPICAL TURN OF MOVING WHEN THE KIDS RELOCATE TO DIFFERENT AREAS. YES.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE PHENOMENON OF KIDS COMING BACK INTO [OVERLAPPING] NEEDING THAT LARGER SPACE.

>> DEFINITELY, THE BOOMERANG IS STILL AN ISSUE.

>> HISTORICALLY, PEOPLE WERE STAYING IN THEIR HOMES IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD UNTIL 85,

[00:20:01]

I DON'T KNOW IF THAT STILL EXISTS OR IF IT'S IMPORTANT OR RELEVANT TO US, BUT WE DO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL POPULATION THAT IS OLDER.

I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S 65 OLDER OR 85 OLDER.

>> ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF WORKING, WHEN WE DO WORK FOR A SCHOOL DISTRICT EVERY YEAR, WE'VE HAD SOME GAPS IN OUR WORK WITH YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT.

WHEN WE DO WORK WITH SCHOOL DISTRICTS EVERY YEAR, WE DO WHAT'S CALLED A NEWCOMER REPORT, WHERE WE'RE LOOKING AT THE DOTS OF THE NEW TO THE DISTRICT.

THEN WE CAN SEE IF THEY'RE COMING INTO EXISTING HOMES THAT HAVE SOLD OR IF IT'S A TEAR DOWN REBUILD OR WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THESE NEW TO THE DISTRICT BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONES WE REALLY WANT TO IDENTIFY, IS WHICH ONES ARE BRAND NEW TO THE DISTRICT.

ARE THEY BECAUSE OF TRANSFERS OUTSIDE THE DISTRICT'S BOUNDARY OR WITHIN? ON THE MULTIFAMILY SIDE, YOU DO HAVE SOME MULTIFAMILY, NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF MULTIFAMILY.

WE RAN A REPORT ON THE MULTIFAMILY WITHIN YOUR DISTRICT, AND YOUR OCCUPANCY RATE FOR YOUR MULTIFAMILY IS AT 92% WHICH IS ABOUT 7% HIGHER THAN THE MULTIFAMILY ACROSS THE AUSTIN REGION.

YOUR MULTI FAMILY, WHEN YOU GET TO 92% YOU'RE BASICALLY FULL.

THAT'S THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF TURN THAT HAPPENS JUST FROM LEASES ENDING AND NEW LEASES STARTING.

YOUR OCCUPANCY RATES ARE HIGH, YOUR RENTS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME SOFTENING IN RENTS ACROSS THE AUSTIN MARKET.

THE AUSTIN MARKET OCCUPANCY ACROSS THE REGION IS ABOUT 86% WE'RE REALLY PRETTY LOW ACROSS, AND IT'S BECAUSE WE'VE ADDED SO MANY MULTIFAMILY UNITS.

I DO HAVE THE DETAILS ON YOUR SPECIFIC MULTIFAMILY, THE YIELDS, AND WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THOSE MULTIFAMILY, BUT IT'S STILL RELATIVELY LOW.

YOUR YIELDS ARE YIELDING LESS THAN 0.2 FOR THE MOST PART.

>> WE'RE HAVING MORE AND MORE MULTIFAMILY HOUSING THAT IS A CONDOMINIUM AS OPPOSED TO A RENTAL.

IS THAT REFLECTED IN HERE?

>> THAT WOULD BE THE TOWN HOMES OR THAT ARE FOR PURCHASE SHOW UP IN SINGLE FAMILY.

THEY DON'T SHOW UP IN THE RENTAL AS TRADITIONAL MULTIFAMILY.

NOW, HERE'S THE PICTURE OF YOUR DISTRICT BASED ON YOUR CURRENT ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONES.

THOSE GREEN SHADED AREAS ARE AREAS WHERE WE DO SEE SOME SINGLE FAMILY CONSTRUCTION.

THESE ARE SMALL IN NUMBERS, BUT THE GREEN, WE'VE GOT ABOUT 66 LOTS AVAILABLE FOR BUILDERS TO BUILD ON.

WE'VE GOT ABOUT ANOTHER 70 LOTS THAT ARE IN THE PLANNING STAGES.

THOSE ARE THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE YELLOW SHADED AREAS.

NOW, I'M GOING TO GO INTO THE DETAILS OF THESE SO WE CAN SHOW YOU WHAT'S HAPPENING, BUT AGAIN, MOST OF THESE THEY'VE GOT ONE TO TWO TO THREE UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

THERE WAS ONE THAT I SPOTTED THAT DID HAVE ABOUT 13 HOMES.

NO, A-D-D-I-E, THE ADDIE.

THEY'VE GOT 23 HOMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN THE ADDIE.

THE ADDIE IS TOWN HOMES AND THEY'VE GOT 23 GOING THERE.

AGAIN, I DON'T EXPECT IT'S GOING TO BE YIELDING A HIGH NUMBER, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME KIDS THAT WILL BE IN THOSE TOWN HOMES.

THIS IS LOOKING AT DAVENPORT RANCH.

IT'S A TOTAL OF 518 TOTAL LOTS, 12 VACANT DEVELOPED LOTS.

IT'S ALMOST DONE ONE HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

THOSE HOMES REALLY ARE WELL ABOVE 700,000.

THE YIELD OF STUDENTS PER HOME.

WE GEOCODED YOUR STUDENTS THIS YEAR, IT'S 0.612, THAT'S A GOOD YIELD.

I WOULD SAY WE GEOCODE 2 MILLION STUDENT ADDRESSES EACH YEAR OUT OF OUR 80 CLIENTS.

THE AVERAGES ARE IN THAT 0.5:0.6 RANGE EVEN OF SUBURBAN FAST GROWTH DISTRICTS.

THAT'S A HIGH YIELD OR I SHOULD SAY A GOOD YIELD.

NEXT WE'RE LOOKING AT SEVEN OAKS.

IT'S 149 HOMES, 13 VACANT DEVELOPED LOTS, THERE WERE FOUR HOMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

COULD BUILD ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 HOMES A YEAR, STARTING AT ABOUT 850 AND ABOVE.

THAT YIELD IS 0.659 SPY GLASS AT BARTON CREEK.

A SMALLER LITTLE INFIELD OF SPOT IS 20 TOTAL LOTS, 10 HOMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

FIRST RESIDENTS COULD BE MOVING IN NOW AND WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY STUDENTS THAT GEOCODED THERE WHEN WE DID THE GEOCODE.

[00:25:02]

IT'S A FUTURE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS 49 FUTURE LOTS.

THE FINAL PLAT WAS APPROVED IN APRIL OF 23.

WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT THEY'VE BROKEN GROUND YET.

COULD BE BREAKING GROUND.

WHEN THEY DO BREAK GROUND, IT'LL TAKE THEM ABOUT A YEAR TO A YEAR-AND-A-HALF TO GET THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE LOTS IN BEFORE YOU WOULD START TO SEE HOME CONSTRUCTION.

I ALWAYS SAY WHEN THE BULLDOZERS SHOW UP, THAT'S WHEN THE CLOCK REALLY STARTS TICKING, AND THEN IT COULD BE TWO YEARS TO TWO-AND-A-HALF YEARS BEFORE YOU HAVE OCCUPIED HOMES.

ONE THING THAT'S REALLY CHANGED IS CONSTRUCTION TIMES HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED.

THERE'S STILL SOME SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES.

MOSTLY IT'S LABOR CHALLENGES, SO CONSTRUCTION TIMES HAVE STAYED HIGH.

NOW HERE'S A LOOK AT YOUR MULTIFAMILY PICTURE.

THESE ARE YOUR MULTIFAMILY COMPLEXES.

YOU CAN SEE YOU'VE GOT SEVERAL DOWN IN THE CEDAR CREEK ELEMENTARY ZONE, YOU'VE GOT A FEW IN THE EANES ZONE, AND A COUPLE UP THERE IN THE BRIDGE POINT ZONE.

THE RED ARE YIELDING IN THE 0.2 RANGE.

THE ORANGE ARE YIELDING BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2, THE YELLOW ARE YIELDING LESS THAN 0.1.

THE DISTRICT AVERAGE IS 0.119.

YOU'VE GOT ABOUT 317 STUDENTS THAT ARE RESIDING IN ABOUT 2,600 MULTIFAMILY UNITS.

JUST TO GIVE YOU THE RED ONE DOWN THERE IS THE CLIFFS AT BARTON CREEK.

THAT'S 50 STUDENTS OUT OF THEIR UNITS THERE.

THOSE TWO ORANGES TO THE SOUTH THERE, THAT IS THE GABLES AND POST BARTON CREEK.

THEY'RE YIELDING ABOUT 42 STUDENTS IN THE GABLES AND ABOUT 29 STUDENTS IN THE POST BARTON CREEK.

AGAIN, IT'S ALL RELATIVE FROM WHAT I SEE, THESE ARE LOW YIELDING APARTMENTS.

UP IN THE NORTH, YOU'VE GOT THE WEST LAKE.

THAT'S GOT ABOUT 56 STUDENTS.

THAT RED ONE UP THERE IN BRIDGE POINT, 56, AND THE MAJORITY OF THEM DO TEND TO BE ELEMENTARY.

WE SEE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER NUMBERS AT THE ELEMENTARY, AND THEN THE MIDDLE AND THE HIGH CAN BE A LITTLE BIGGER AS WELL.

THAT ORANGE IN THE NORTH IS NOLLYWOODS, AND THAT'S ABOUT 33 STUDENTS.

THAT ONE'S 11 AT ELEMENTARY, 11 MIDDLE, 11 AT HIGH SCHOOL.

NOW THE STARS ARE THE SCHOOLS.

THOSE ARE THE SCHOOLS.

THE REDS, I BELIEVE ARE THE ELEMENTARIES, AND THE GREENS ARE MIDDLE, BLUES IN THE HIGH SCHOOL.

THAT'S SOMETHING WE SHOULD HAVE ON HERE.

I'LL ADD THAT. WE HAVE WORKED WITH YOUR DISTRICT THREE TIMES, AND SO I DID GO BACK AND TAKE A LOOK.

WE LOOKED AT THE DATA WE HAD IN 2018, AND THAT'S WHAT PRODUCED THESE MAPS.

THIS WAS YOUR YIELD OF STUDENTS BY ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE.

I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A QUICK WAY TO LOOK TO SEE WHAT'S HAPPENED.

YOU CAN SEE THE BARTON CREEK HAD THE HIGHEST YIELD, 0.94, AND YOU CAN SEE VALLEY VIEW.

I DON'T KNOW WHY WE BROKE OUT THAT ONE SECTION OF BARTON CREEK, BUT THAT SECTION IS 0.48, BRIDGE POINT 0.6, EANES 0.47, FOREST TRAIL 0.63, CEDAR CREEK 0.73.

WHAT YOU'LL NOTICE IS, WHEN WE DID IT IN 2021, THE YIELDS HAVE DROPPED.

THE YIELDS ARE GOING DOWN AT PRETTY MUCH EVERY ZONE.

THE AVERAGE BACK THEN WAS 0.61, AND THIS TIME AROUND, WHEN WE DID THE YIELDS IS 0.54.

AGAIN, I ATTRIBUTE IT TO THE AGING OF YOUR DISTRICT.

IT'S NOT SO MUCH LOSS OF THE YIELD, IT'S THE AGING AS THEY'RE MOVING.

NOW, TA TRANSFER REPORT, THIS IS DATA FROM THE TEXAS EDUCATION AGENCY.

WE DON'T HAVE THIS YEAR'S DATA YET.

THIS YEAR'S DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE END OF MARCH.

YOU ARE IN RARE COMPANY.

THERE ARE VERY FEW DISTRICTS OUT OF THE 80 THAT WE WORK WITH THAT ARE POSITIVE.

YOU TRANSFER POSITIVE.

MOST OF THEM ARE TRANSFER NEGATIVE TO A GREAT DEGREE, AND SO THAT IS YOUR DESTINATION DISTRICT FOR SURE.

YOU CAN SEE MAJORITY OF THEM ARE COMING FROM AUSTIN ISD, LAKE TRAVIS ISD.

ON THE TRANSFERS OUT, THERE'S JUST A COUPLE THERE.

IT'S AUSTIN ISD AND THE PREMIER HIGH SCHOOLS.

[00:30:04]

THEY WORK IN THOSE OTHER DISTRICTS AND THEY TAKE KIDS WITH THEM, I SUSPECT IS THE ISSUE THERE.

WHEN WE DO THE PROJECTIONS, WE HOLD THE TRANSFER THIS NUMBER CONSTANT.

NOW, THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE WHEN I TALK ABOUT THE GRADE LEVEL PROJECTIONS AND WHEN I TALK ABOUT KINDERGARTEN, WHEN WE GET TO KINDERGARTEN, YOU ARE GOING TO NEED TO SEE TRANSFERS COMING IN TO KEEP YOUR KINDERGARTEN NUMBER AT A LEVEL THAT'S GOING TO HELP YOU TO KEEP YOUR ENROLLMENT AT 7,500 KIDS.

IF WE DON'T SEE YOUR KINDERGARTEN NUMBER AT 450 KIDS, IT'S GOING TO BE HARD FOR YOUR TOTAL ENROLLMENT TO STAY AT 7,500.

NOW, I SPENT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME, IT'S LIKE A GAME PUZZLE OF FACTORING IN.

I START AND WORK EACH ELEMENTARY CAMPUS FIRST, I DO THE CAMPUSES FIRST, I LET THEM MIGRATE UP INTO THE SECONDARY CAMPUSES.

AS I WORKED THIS, THE KEY IS THE KINDERGARTEN NUMBER.

IT NEEDS TO STAY IN THAT 450, 460S RANGE.

IF WE DON'T SEE IT THERE, THAT NUMBER COULD FLOAT DOWN TO AROUND 72, 7,300, THAT PUTS YOU IN A UNIQUE SPOT TO WHERE YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO CONTROL THE KNOB, SO TO SPEAK, BECAUSE YOU ARE A DESTINATION DISTRICT AND I'M SURE THAT THE FOLKS THAT WANT TO COME IN HERE IS A LONG LIST.

WITH THIS CHANGING IN THE AGING OF YOUR DISTRICT, I AM GROWING YOUR GRADE LEVEL NUMBERS.

IF YOU'LL LOOK, I'M FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN THAT YOU HAVE HISTORICALLY DONE IN THOSE FIRST ALL THE WAY THROUGH HIGH SCHOOL.

ONE OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT WAS UNIQUE ABOUT YOUR HIGH SCHOOL IS, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP THAT MAY BE HAPPENING AT 6TH, LITTLE BIT OF BUMP THAT MAY BE HAPPENING AT 9TH, WHICH COULD BE SOME PRIVATE SCHOOL IMMERSION BACK INTO THE DISTRICT BECAUSE OF YOUR FINE ARTS AND YOUR ATHLETICS.

I DO SEE THAT HAPPENING MORE AND MORE, AND SO THAT'S EVIDENT IN THAT VERY FIRST SLIDE.

THAT VERY FIRST SLIDE, IF YOU LOOK AT THE 9TH GRADE COHORT, YOU'LL SEE IT'S A LITTLE HIGHER, AND YOU'LL ALSO SEE THE 6TH GRADE COHORTS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER AS WELL.

NOW HERE'S WHAT THE PROJECTIONS LOOK LIKE AT YOUR CAMPUS LEVEL.

YOU'LL NOTICE YOUR ELEMENTARY NUMBER, I'M HOLDING IT AT ABOUT A LITTLE OVER 3,000.

COULD GET TO 3,100 IN SIX YEARS.

THAT IS GOING TO BE DEPENDENT UPON SOME SUSTAINED TRANSFER NUMBERS IN YOUR KINDERGARTEN CLASS.

YOUR MIDDLE SCHOOLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, THEY'RE STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TOGETHER.

YOUR HIGH SCHOOL COULD EBB DOWN TO ABOUT 2,600 IN 5-6 YEARS.

>> COULD YOU CLARIFY HOW OUR CURRENT TRANSFER STUDENTS, INCLUDING EMPLOYEE TRANSFER STUDENTS, ARE INCLUDED OR NOT?

>> THEY ARE INCLUDED.

WE BUILD AN ATTENDING FORECAST.

OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ATTENDING PATTERNS.

WE'VE LOCKED THAT INTO PLACE.

WHAT I'M SAYING IS INCOMING KINDERGARTEN, YOU NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT NUMBER THAT'LL GET YOU TO THAT 450 RANGE, BECAUSE THE ONES THAT ARE HERE, I'M ASSUMING THEY CONTINUE TO COME STAY.

>> AS GRADES MATURE AS COHORTS GO THROUGH, WE TEND TO GET A FEW MORE TRANSFERS AS IT GOES UP.

IS THAT A CORRECT ASSUMPTION?

>> YES. GIVEN THAT, WHAT WE DO FOR PROJECTION PURPOSES IS HE HAS THOSE ATTENDING ANALYTICS BUILT IN HERE, AND THEN WE TAKE CURRENT TRANSFERS AND ROLL THEM UP A YEAR KNOWING THAT WE ARE GOING TO ADD, WE MAY LOSE SOME, BUT WE'RE GOING TO ADD SOME AS WELL WHERE WE CAN, ESPECIALLY ELEMENTARY YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT CLASS SIZES, SECTION SIZES, AND FIT THEM IN WHERE WE CAN.

THEN WHEN WE COME TO KINDERGARTEN, REALLY WE TAKE JUST AN AVERAGE REALLY, 10% IS TYPICALLY WHAT WE SEE COMING INTO KINDERGARTEN.

EVEN THIS YEAR WAS A 10% TRANSFER GROUP, AND SO GIVEN THAT, THAT'S WHAT'S BUILT INTO THIS KINDERGARTEN, SO IT'S DEFINITELY MANAGEABLE AND IT'S VERY TYPICAL WHAT WE DO.

BUT LIKE BOB SAID, WE NEED TO TRY TO GET AROUND THAT 450.

IF WE DON'T, IT'S GOING TO BE A LOWER NUMBER, BUT YOU CAN TAKE THIS YEAR'S TRANSFER, EVERYTHING'S ROLLED UP ON TOP OF HIS ANALYTICS.

[00:35:02]

>> YOU'RE IN A PRETTY UNIQUE SPOT FROM MY PERSPECTIVE TO WHERE YOU HAVE THE ABILITY, UNLIKE MOST OF OUR DISTRICTS THAT WE WORK WITH TO MAXIMIZE YOUR CLASS SIZE.

YOU CAN SET WHATEVER CLASS SIZE YOU WANT AND YOU CAN LIKELY HIT THAT WITH HOW YOU DEAL WITH TRANSFERS.

MOST DISTRICTS, LIKE I SAID, THEY'RE TRANSFERRING OUT SO MANY.

THAT'S NOT A TOOL IN THEIR TOOL BELT THAT THEY GET TO USE TO HELP MAXIMIZE YOUR OPERATIONS AND YOUR CLASS SIZES, SO YOU CAN HIT THE NUMBER YOU WANT.

KEY TAKEAWAYS, THE AUSTIN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS REMAIN POSITIVE WITH STRONG JOB GROWTH, HOUSING MARKET IS STARTING TO TURN WITH THE EASING IN THE PRICE ESCALATION.

WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME INVENTORY ACROSS THE REGION.

INTEREST RATES ARE NOT LIKELY GOING TO KEEP GOING UP.

WE THINK THEY COULD HAVE HIT THEIR TOP END.

NEW HOUSING IS MOSTLY CONSISTING OF INFILL, WHICH IS SMALLER NUMBERS.

THERE IS STILL SOME HOUSING THAT'S TAKING PLACE.

IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY DRIVE SIGNIFICANT ENROLLMENT GROWTH.

OVERALL, THE POPULATION CONTINUES TO AGE WITH YOUR LARGEST GENERATIONS AT THE GEN Z, GEN X AND BABY BOOMERS.

THE DISTRICT'S HOUSING YIELDS HAVE DECLINED.

AGAIN, IT TIES TO THE AGING.

WE BELIEVE IN FIVE YEARS YOUR ENROLLMENT COULD BE AT ABOUT 7,600 AND COULD STAY IN THAT 7,600 RANGE.

>> ANY THOUGHT AS TO WHY THE MILLENNIALS AREN'T AS LARGER PART AS THE GEN XERS PARTICULARLY? THOSE ARE THE 40 YEAR OLDS.

>> NO, THEY'RE THE 30S.

THEY MAY NOT HAVE ARRIVED AT THE ABILITY TO BUY THE HOMES.

>> BUT THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS AT A HIGHER PERCENTAGE.

THEY HAVE EVEN YOUNGER KIDS ARGUABLY.

>> GOOD OBSERVATION.

>> DOES THAT STILL COUNT THE KIDS IN SCHOOL? [OVERLAPPING] IS THIS OVERALL POPULATION, NOT JUST HOMEOWNERS, CORRECT?

>> IT'S OVERALL POPULATION.

>> THE GEN Z ARE STILL IN HIGH SCHOOL?

>> THAT'S 23%.

>> STUDENTS.

>> STUDENTS.

>> WHAT'S THE AGE RANGE FOR A GEN Z?

>> GEN Z IS, LET'S SEE.

>> TWENTY-FIVE.

>> TWENTY-FIVE DOWN THERE.

>> THEY'RE COLLEGE STUDENTS.

>> THEY'RE COLLEGE STUDENTS.

>> COLLEGE STUDENTS BUT THEY'RE STILL GOING UP IN CENSUS.

>> NO. BUT THERE'S ALSO HIGH SCHOOL AND MIDDLE SCHOOL.

THEY GO ALL THE WAY DOWN, CORRECT?

>> YES.

>> I JUST THOUGHT IT WAS CURIOUS THAT THE MILLENNIALS, IF IT'S THE SAME NUMBER OF YEARS, I MEAN THAT STARTED IN '80 PEOPLE BORN IN 1980, THOSE PEOPLE ARE 42 NOW, 43.

AND SO I WOULD ARGUE THAT THERE ARE MIDDLE SCHOOL-ISH.

>> I JUST DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S THE HOUSING FOR THE MILLENNIALS.

IT'S A HOUSING ISSUE AS WELL.

>> BUT IT STARTS AT 43, BUT IT GOES DOWN TO 20 SOMETHING, AND THERE ARE 26 YEAR OLDS IN THAT GROUP TOO.

>> MOST OF MY FRIENDS THAT ARE MILLENNIALS WAITED TO HAVE KIDS UNTIL THEY WERE MUCH OLDER.

>> YES.

>> ARE WE AT QUESTIONS?

>> YES.

>> TRUSTEES, ANY QUESTIONS? I HAVE A COUPLE THEN.

DID WE ACCOUNT FOR THE YEARS THAT WE'VE CUT OFF ACCEPTING TRANSFERS AT VALUE VIEW AND HOW THE DENT THAT THAT MAY HAVE PUT IN OUR ENROLLMENT THERE?

>> I BELIEVE THAT REFLECTS CURRENT NUMBERS.

[OVERLAPPING]

>> IT'S A LITTLE ARTIFICIALLY DEFLATED AND THAT CONCERNS ME A LITTLE BIT.

>> CAN I CLARIFY HOW MANY APPLICATIONS WE HAD THAT WERE REJECTED?

>> I DON'T KNOW THE NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS, BUT JEREMY, WE REALLY ONLY PUT THAT INTO PLAY FOR ONE YEAR.

THERE WAS ONLY ONE YEAR WHERE WE REALLY PAUSED TRANSFERS AT VALUE VIEW.

>> WE COULD LOOK AND SAY, HISTORICALLY WE HAD THREE KINDERGARTEN CLASSROOMS THERE, AND THIS YEAR WE HAD ONE OR TWO OR WHATEVER THAT NUMBER IS.

WE ESTIMATE THAT.

WE COULD HAVE FILLED IT WITH TRANSFERS THOUGH? POSSIBLY. YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S NO IMPACT FROM VALUE VIEW.

>> FROM THAT ONE YEAR IN QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT IT SIGMA.

>> WE CAN LOOK INTO THAT.

>> SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. THE OTHER ONE IS ON SLIDE 15.

THIS ONE. WELL, MAYBE MY SLIDE NUMBERS ARE DIFFERENT.

[00:40:02]

>> IT'S THE MULTI FAMILY. YES.

>> I DON'T SEE A PAGE NUMBER AT ALL. THIS ONE.

>> THIS IS 15.

[OVERLAPPING].

>> I DON'T HAVE THAT. LET ME GO TO IT REAL QUICK.

IS THAT TEN-YEAR FORECAST BY GREAT, NO, TEN YEAR FORECAST BY CAMPUS LEVEL MODERATE CAMPUS.

WE ASK ABOUT CAPACITY NUMBERS AT THESE SCHOOLS.

IT WOULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW CAPACITY CHANGES OVER TIME.

THINKING ABOUT THAT, FOR EXAMPLE, I THINK WE'VE ALWAYS THOUGHT FOREST TRAIL IS PRETTY FULL AND THINKING ABOUT 49 NEW HOMES YIELDING 0.620 SOMETHING KIDS THERE, I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TO NECESSARILY PUT US OVER THE TOP.

BUT SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT AS THESE CHANGE, HOW IS OUR CAPACITY CHANGING AS WELL? THAT COULD CHANGE WITH CLASS SIZE ADJUST.

BUT THE NUMBER OF CLASSROOMS TIMES THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS YOU'RE PUTTING IN CLASSROOM IS YOUR CAPACITY.

>> CAPACITY AT THE ELEMENTARY LEVEL IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.

IT IS A FUNCTION OF PROGRAMMING ALSO, THERE CAN BE SOME PROGRAMMING APPLICATIONS.

WE ENCOURAGE DISTRICTS TO TAKE LOOK AT THEIR CAPACITY BECAUSE OF SPECIAL PROGRAMS. BUT AT ELEMENTARY TO YOUR POINT, IT IS PRETTY MUCH SECTIONS PER GRADE LEVEL.

MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL, IT'S ABOUT THE OVERALL SCHEDULE, THE PROGRAMMING, AND IT'S A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED ISSUE FOR SECONDARY AND HIGH SCHOOL.

BUT I WOULD SAY WE CAN PUT IN THE CAPACITY PRETTY EASILY AND THEN YOU CAN SEE HOW IT COMPARES AGAINST THE CAPACITY.

>> THANK YOU. I'LL GO DIANE, KIM, AND THEN JIM MAYBE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THIS IS EXTREMELY INFORMATIVE AND THANK YOU FOR TALKING US THROUGH SOME OF THE PROCESSES BEHIND THESE.

ONE QUESTION, WHILE WE'RE ON THIS SLIDE, THE WORD MODERATE IS IN PARENTHESES.

DOES THAT MEAN THAT YOU'VE LOOKED AT?

>> I HAVE PERFORMED ABOUT FIVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.

>> WHAT DO YOU LABEL THOSE? YOU JUST GIVE US THIS ONE BUT NOT [OVERLAPPING]

>> I HAVE A LOW THAT IS IF YOU DON'T GET THAT 450, IT SHOWS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE KINDERGARTEN NUMBER STAYING DOWN LOW.

THE LOW SCENARIO WOULD BE IF YOUR ENROLLMENT DOESN'T PULL BACK TO 450.

>> IS THAT ALL AVAILABLE TO US TO LOOK FOR THAT? [LAUGHTER]

>> MY ONLY QUESTION WHEN WE REVIEWED THAT, IS WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL IN HOW WE LOOK AT A LOW, LOW SCENARIO.

BECAUSE IF WE DON'T ASSUME ANY TRANSFERS AT KINDERGARTEN AND WE PROJECT THAT OUT OVER TEN YEARS, EVERY SINGLE LAGGING YEAR, YOU'RE JUST REDUCING MORE, REDUCING MORE.

YOU'RE COMPOUNDING THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM, ASSUMING THAT YOU WOULD NEVER TAKE ON ANY MORE TRANSFERS AND IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT WE WOULD DO.

I HESITATE TO GO WITH THAT.

THERE MAY BE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THIS PLAN.

MAYBE YOU DON'T HIT THAT 450.

MAYBE YOU GET TO 425. GOING LOW.

LOW DOESN'T SEEM LIKE SOMETHING THIS DISTRICT WOULD DO, GIVEN THE TRANSFER PROGRAM.

THAT'S WHY I WENT WITH THE MODERATE, WHICH INCLUDES FOCUSING ON THAT KINDERGARTEN FOR YOUR LAGGING YEARS.

>> I CAN'T REALLY COME UP WITH A HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO, AND I PLAYED WITH WHAT CAUSES ME TO USE A HIGH GROWTH OR SCHOOL DISTRICTS, IT'S TYPICALLY THOSE THAT HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF VACANT LAND AND THEIR HOUSING CAN CYCLE UP TO 2000 HOMES A YEAR.

GERALD RIGHT NOW IS BUILDING 1,200 HOMES A YEAR.

COULD THEY BUILD 2000? YEAH, THEY COULD.

IF THE INTEREST RATES DROP BACK DOWN TO 3% THAT HOUSING RATE IS GOING TO SHOOT BACK UP.

IT'S EASY FOR ME TO DO A HIGH SCENARIO FOR DISTRICTS THAT ARE A LOT OF VACANT LAND AND A LOT OF OPTIONS.

FOR YOU, YOUR HOUSING IS PRETTY SET AND THE ONLY THING THAT'S REALLY GOING TO CAUSE YOUR ENROLLMENT TO GO UP SIGNIFICANTLY WOULD BE WHAT DO YOU DO WITH TRANSFERS?

>> ONE CRAZY IDEA, NOT IDEA BUT POSSIBILITY THAT I'VE HEARD MENTIONED IS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH BARTON CREEK MALL.

IS THAT SOMETHING YOU CONSIDERED IN ANY OF THE MODELS?

>> BUT IS THAT SOMETHING THAT COULD CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE OF HOUSING UNITS?

[00:45:01]

IT WOULD BE NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD HAPPEN.

>> THAT'S A TEN TO 20 YEAR PROJECT, A MINIMUM PROBABLY.

>> WHAT'S FUNNY IS WACO'S HAS GOING THROUGH SOME SIMILAR THINGS WITH FLOYD CASEY STADIUM AND WE SAW THAT WITH THE AUSTIN AIRPORT.

YOU MAY REMEMBER THE AUSTIN AIRPORT USED TO BE RIGHT THERE ON 35 AND NOW IT'S BECOME A TOTALLY DIFFERENT PROJECT.

BUT ALL DEFINITELY COULD, WE ARE SEEING COMMERCIAL SPACE BEING TURNED INTO HOUSING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

BUT IT WOULD IN MY MIND, IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO IMPACT THE ENROLLMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

IT'S GOING TO BE MUCH FURTHER DOWN BEFORE THEY COULD TURN IT INTO HOUSING.

>> IF WE'RE DOING SOME LONG RANGE FACILITIES PLANNING LOOKING BEYOND TEN YEARS, HOW FAR OUT DO YOU EVER FEEL COMFORTABLE LOOKING?

>> I ALWAYS ADVISE DISTRICTS, REALLY LOOK AT FIVE BECAUSE SO MUCH CAN CHANGE IN THE FIVE TO TEN.

NOW, AGAIN, IT'S DIFFERENT FOR DISTRICTS LIKE DISTRICTS THAT HAVE A LOT OF VACANT LAND AND WE DO BUILD OUT STUDIES FOR THEM BECAUSE THEY NEED TO BUY LAND FOR FUTURE SCHOOL SITES.

WE WILL DO 15, 20 YEAR FORECAST FOR THESE EMERGING FAST GROWTH DISTRICTS.

BUT I SAY FIVE, LOOK AT FIVE, AND THEN IF YOU NEED TO MAKE FACILITY PLANS IN THE FIVE TO TEN, IT'S TYPICALLY FOR ANYTHING TO BUY LAND OR MAKE SOME OTHER CHANGES.

>> I HAVE ONE LAST QUESTION.

THE VALLEY VIEW NUMBER HERE ON THIS SLIDE THAT WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT THAT GOES UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND YOU DID HAVE THAT AS A GREEN ZONE.

IT WAS TWO DIFFERENT GREENS ON MY VERSION.

WAS THERE SIGNIFICANCE TO THE TWO DIFFERENT [OVERLAPPING].

IT'S THE DRIVING THAT KINDERGARTEN NUMBER.

I DROVE THAT KINDERGARTEN NUMBER.

IN ORDER FOR VALUE VIEW GET TO THOSE NUMBERS, THAT KINDERGARTEN NUMBER NEEDS TO JUMP.

>> IT'S TRANSFERS IS WHAT YOU'RE THINKING FOR THAT?

>> YES.

>> OKAY.

THANK YOU.

>> THERE'S NOT A NATURAL IN THE ZONE EFFECT THAT'S GOING TO DRIVE THAT NUMBER TO THAT POINT.

>> I WAS GETTING IN THE WEEDS LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE SCHOOLS.

I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW THE THREE FEEDER SCHOOLS INTO EACH OF THOSE TWO MIDDLE SCHOOLS DIDN'T ALL MAKE SENSE TO ME.

BUT I GUESS YOU'RE JUST SAYING YOU'RE FOLLOWING HISTORICAL DATA.

>> WE'RE FEEDING THOSE ELEMENTARIES INTO THOSE MIDDLE SCHOOLS.

THERE'S DEFINITELY WIGGLE ROOM THERE AS WELL, DEPENDING UPON HOW YOU DEAL WITH TRANSFERS INTO THOSE MIDDLE SCHOOLS.

I THINK THE THING IS, WHAT IS THE CAPACITY FOR THOSE MIDDLE SCHOOLS SO THAT YOU CAN UNDERSTAND HOW YOU DEAL WITH YOUR FACILITY PLANS BASED ON THE CAPACITIES.

THANK YOU.

THANK YOU, DIANE. KIM.

THANK YOU FOR THIS. MY QUESTIONS ARE ALONG THE LINES OF DIANE'S.

I WAS ALSO LOOKING AT THE BIG JUMP AND I WAS LOOKING AT THE 10-YEAR GAP OF VALLEY VIEW FROM 290-490 PLUS ON THE SAME SLIDE.

BUT THEN CEDAR CREEK HAD A HUGE JUMP, AGAIN, LOOKING AT THE 10 YEAR, AND BARTON CREEK HAD A BIG JUMP.

I KNOW IT'S AN ART AND I KNOW IT'S A SCIENCE, BUT WHAT ARE THE FACTORS THAT GO IN OUTSIDE OF STARTING KINDERGARTEN? WITH THOSE THREE SCHOOLS ESPECIALLY HAVING SIGNIFICANT [OVERLAPPING].

>> I LOOKED AT THE HISTORY OF THOSE CAMPUSES, I LOOKED AT THE GRADE LEVEL COHORTS THAT TOOK PLACE IN THOSE CAMPUSES, AND SO THEN I USED THAT COHORT.

I ALSO LOOKED AT THE HOUSING THAT'S IN EACH OF THE ZONES, BUT THE HOUSING IS SUCH A MINIMAL DRIVER, BUT IT DOES DRIVE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

SO THERE IS A DEGREE OF GROWTH FROM HOUSING, AND THEN IT'S THE COHORT PATTERNS, AND THEN IT'S ME PUSHING THAT KINDERGARTEN NUMBER.

>> THANK YOU. THEN YOU'RE ASSUMING ON THIS, WELL, ON ALL OF YOUR FORECAST, YOU'RE ASSUMING THAT THE BOUNDARIES REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE SIX ELEMENTARY.

>> YES.

>> THEN ALSO, JUST MORE OF A CURIOSITY QUESTION, SO WHEN I LOOK AT THIS MODERATE LEVEL CAMPUS 10-YEAR FORECAST, IF YOU'RE SAYING IT'S EASIER TO LOOK OUT FIVE YEARS, I LOOK AT 28, 29.

WHAT DID I SEE? FROM AN ABSOLUTE CHANGE STANDPOINT AT THE HIGH SCHOOL, THERE'S A BIG DROP, OR THERE'S A -66, BUT THE YEAR BEFORE, THERE WAS A -1.

AGAIN, I GO BACK TO THE SCIENCE OF THIS, [OVERLAPPING] WHAT DO YOU GET [OVERLAPPING].

[00:50:02]

>> ARE YOU ABLE TO SEE THIS GRADE LEVEL PAGE?

>> I CAN GO BACK TO MAKE SURE.

>> YOU CAN SEE WHAT'S COMING.

LOOK AT THE SIXTH GRADE CLASS RIGHT NOW, 560 KIDS.

THAT'S ONE OF THE SMALLEST CLASSES IN SIXTH GRADE THAT YOU'VE SEEN, SO THEN AS THAT HITS THOSE HIGH SCHOOL NUMBERS.

>> YOU'RE JUMPING OUT.

>> THEN YOU'RE STARTING TO SEE THESE 12TH GRADE CLASSES.

LOOK, HISTORICALLY, THEY'VE BEEN REALLY LARGE.

THIS YEAR'S 12TH GRADE CLASS IS THE SMALLEST THAT YOU'VE HAD IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

IT'S THAT ADVANCING OF THOSE GRADES.

I'M USING YOUR COHORT PATTERN, BUT YOU CAN SEE THIS SIXTH GRADE CLASS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE SMALLER CLASSES HISTORICALLY.

THE PREVIOUS YEAR IT WAS 526, THAT WAS ONE OF THE SMALLER ONES, AND THEN 504, THAT WAS THE SMALLEST FOURTH GRADE CLASS IN THOSE FIVE-YEAR PERIOD.

THOSE ARE THE BUBBLES THAT MOVE THROUGH, THAT CAUSE THOSE EBBS AND FLOWS WHEN THEY WORK THROUGH THE MIDDLE SCHOOL GRADES AND ULTIMATELY THROUGH THE HIGH SCHOOL GRADES.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU. ELLEN.

>> I JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE I'M UNDERSTANDING.

ONE PERCENT GROWTH, IS THAT STRONG GROWTH?

>> NO. THAT'S BARELY GROWTH.

>> [BACKGROUND].

>> WELL, BECAUSE THAT FIRST GRADE, THAT WAS 6%.

1.058, 1% IS NOT.

BUT WHAT'S HAPPENING AT FIRST GRADE IS NOT 1%, IT'S ACTUALLY ABOUT 6%.

THAT'S THE 1.058.

>> SO THE 58 MAKES THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE?

>> YES. THAT'S ALMOST 6%.

THE SECOND GRADE IS 5.5, 5.6%.

THIRD GRADE IS 5.4%.

>> WHEN DOES IT START BEING STRONG? [OVERLAPPING] OUR GROWTH HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY.

>> STEADY? [LAUGHTER]

>> WE USED TO HAVE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT GROWTH, AND WE WERE THINKING ABOUT A SECOND HIGH SCHOOL AND ALL OF THOSE SORTS OF THINGS.

BUT WE'VE HAD VERY, VERY STEADY GROWTH.

I'M JUST TRYING TO GET LANGUAGE AROUND.

TO ME, STRONG GROWTH IMPLIES THAT WE'RE GOING TO END UP IN A PLACE VERY DIFFERENT 10 YEARS FROM NOW OR FIVE YEARS FROM NOW.

>> THIS IS WHERE I TRIED TO EXPLAIN.

IT'S A REALLY UNIQUE THING THAT'S HAPPENING TO WHERE GRADE OVER GRADE, THE FIRST GRADE CLASS LAST YEAR WAS 479, THIS YEAR'S SECOND GRADE CLASS WAS 506, SO THIS YEAR'S SECOND GRADE CLASS GREW 27-ISH KIDS.

THAT'S GOOD GROWTH. THAT'S GOOD.

BUT WHEN YOU ADD ALL OF THOSE UP, GRADE OVER GRADE IS GOOD, STRONG GROWTH, BUT THE FACT THAT YOU GRADUATED 714 AND YOU ONLY BROUGHT IN 473, THAT'S WHAT'S CAUSING THAT NEGATIVE AT THE END.

IF I WERE TO LOOK AT EACH GRADE AND JUST MEASURE EACH GRADE, YOUR GROWTH WOULD BE VERY STRONG.

IT'S THE EXITING VERSUS THE INCOMING THAT MAKE THIS TRICKY.

>> OVER THE 13 YEARS.

>> YES.

>> OKAY. JUST A FEW COMMENTS, THESE AREN'T REALLY QUESTIONS.

I THINK THIS REINFORCES TO ME THE VALUE OF OUR TRANSFER POLICY AND HOW IMPORTANT THAT IS TO OUR ABILITY TO STABILIZE PROGRAMMING.

I THINK WE'RE VERY FORTUNATE TO HAVE AS MUCH EXPERIENCE WITH IT AS WE HAVE AND THE STAFFING, JEREMY, THAT WE HAVE WORKING TO OPTIMIZE THAT.

I ALSO THINK I SEE IN HERE THAT IT MAY REQUIRE SOME REZONING OVER TIME BECAUSE INTERNALLY EVEN THOUGH OVER THE 10 YEARS WE DON'T END, IN FACT, WE END UP WITH 200 LESS STUDENTS THAN WE HAVE NOW ABOUT, AND OVER A 10-YEAR PERIOD WHEN YOU'RE AT 7,500 AND SOMETHING VERSUS 7,700 AND SOMETHING,

[00:55:02]

BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF UP AND DOWNS WITHIN THE SCHOOL POPULATIONS.

I JUST NOTE TO SELF THAT MAY MEAN THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK AT REDISTRICTING MORE FREQUENTLY THAN WE HAVE IN THE LAST 20 YEARS, SINCE WE HAVEN'T.

DID YOU FIND THAT BY NEIGHBORHOOD YOU SAW SOME REAL DIFFERENT TRENDS?

>> WELL, DEFINITELY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE YIELD CHANGES, THOSE THREE MAPS REALLY ALSO TELL A LITTLE BIT OF A STORY OF WHAT'S HAPPENING AND THERE'S SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE YIELDS.

I THINK WHAT I'M ENCOURAGING DISTRICTS TO REALLY PREPARE FOR THIS NEW ERA IS YOU'VE GOT TO BE NIMBLE, YOU'VE GOT TO BE ABLE TO ADJUST.

NOW, THERE'S A LOT OF WAYS TO ADJUST.

YOU CAN ADJUST WITH PROGRAMMING.

I DON'T KNOW IF YOU HAVE TWO-WAY DUAL LANGUAGE AT ALL CAMPUSES, BUT YOU CAN DO IT WITH PROGRAMMING, YOU CAN DO IT WITH ATTENDANCE ON PLANNING BUT ATTENDANCE ON PLANNING, I CAN TELL YOU, IS VERY PAINFUL.

>> THAT'S WHY WE HAVEN'T DONE IT.

>> YOU DON'T REALLY HAVE A PRE-K PROGRAM TO SPEAK OF.

IS THERE A WAY TO START DOING SOMETHING WITH PRE-K THAT YOU COULD TARGET FOR SOME PLACES THAT HAVE SOME SPACE? AGAIN, I THINK YOU HAVE TO START THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX, SO TO SPEAK, AND HOW YOU USE YOUR BUILDINGS.

THE ATTENDANCE ZONE PIECE IS SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN DO, BUT IT IS PAINFUL.

>> THANK YOU FOR THAT PERSPECTIVE. YES, IT IS.

THE LAST COMMENT I WOULD SAY IS, WHEN I LOOKED AT THIS, PARTICULARLY THE 10-YEAR FORECAST, AND WE'RE ENDING UP WITH ABOUT THE SAME NUMBER OF STUDENTS AND THE ABILITY TO EVEN GO UP A LITTLE BIT IF WE WANTED TO BE EXACTLY AT THE NUMBER AND TO SEE THAT KIND OF STABILITY OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE INTERNAL SHIFTS, I THOUGHT WAS VERY INFORMATIVE AND VERY GOOD NEWS FOR THE LONG-RANGE FACILITIES PLANNING PROCESS BECAUSE THAT MEANS THAT WE AREN'T TALKING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT NEW SQUARE FOOTAGE PER SE.

PERHAPS A LOT OF RETHINKING OF HOW TO OPTIMIZE SPACES, BUT IT'S NOT LIKE WE ARE HAVING TO FIGURE OUT IF WE NEED ADDITIONAL SCHOOLS AND THAT SORT OF THING BECAUSE THAT STABILITY IS PRETTY MUCH A GIFT TO US.

I HOPE YOU'RE RIGHT. [LAUGHTER]

>> WELL, IT'S SO INTERESTING, OUR WORK, I LOVE IT.

BUT ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT I'M NOW FACED WITH IS SPRING BRANCHES CLOSING SCHOOLS.

THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO CLOSE NOT JUST ONE, THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO CLOSE 3-5 SCHOOLS.

LAST YEAR I WORKED WITH PFLUGERVILLE, THEY WERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO CLOSE 2-3 SCHOOLS.

THEY COULDN'T.

THE PUBLIC RESPONSE WAS SO STRONG THAT THEY KICKED THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.

MCKINNEY, LEWISVILLE, PLANO, I'VE GOT HALF A DOZEN CLIENTS THAT ARE IN THIS SITUATION WHERE THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO CLOSE SCHOOLS BECAUSE THEIR DEFICIT BUDGET IS SO GREAT THAT THAT'S THE ONLY WAY TO CUT COST IS CLOSING SCHOOLS.

YOU'RE IN A PRETTY FORTUNATE SPOT FOR ONE, YOU DON'T HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF SCHOOLS AND YOU'RE PRETTY EFFICIENT BUT YOU CAN CONTROL THAT THROUGH YOUR TRANSFER PROCESS.

>> ALONG THOSE LINES, I'LL SAY, I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT THAT KEEPING OUR TRANSFER NUMBERS UP THAT'S THE RIGHT ANSWER HERE, AND I THINK WE CAN DO IT FOR THE MOST PART.

BUT SITTING BEHIND THESE NUMBERS IS THAT SET OF NUMBERS THAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE TRANSFERS IT WOULD, I ASSUME, BE A DECLINING TOTAL ENROLLMENT OVER TIME.

>> IT WOULD BE A DECLINING TOTAL ENROLLMENT OVER TIME.

>> OUR CHALLENGE IS TO NOT JUST KEEP TRANSFERS, IT'S TO INCREASE TRANSFERS OVERTIME TO FILL IN THAT DECLINING ENROLLMENT.

>> YES.

>> I THINK THERE'S A SLIPPER, A PIECE, I DON'T KNOW, OF THE COMMUNITY WHO THINKS WE SHOULDN'T DO TRANSFERS AND I THINK THE UGLY REALITY OF THAT, ESPECIALLY PLAYING OUT OVER A FIVE OR 10-YEAR HORIZON, STARTS TO LOOK LIKE VERY UNDER-UTILIZED CAMPUSES AND TO THE POINT THAT PROBABLY SOME OTHER HARD DECISIONS, LIKE WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT IN OTHER DISTRICTS WOULD HAVE TO BE FACED.

LUCKILY OR NOT EVEN LUCKILY, WISELY, THIS BOARD SUPPORTS A TRANSFER POLICY THAT ENCOURAGES US TO KEEP OUR SCHOOL BUILDINGS FULL AND ENCOURAGES US TO MAKE OUR VERY HIGH-QUALITY EDUCATION AVAILABLE TO

[01:00:02]

>> FOLLOWING ON WHAT YOU WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT, HOW WE HAVE THIS SLOPE GOING DOWN AND WE'RE HAVING TO GROW THE TRANSFERS.

THIS GETS BACK TO THAT WORST-CASE SCENARIO THAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT WITH MY LAST QUESTION.

IF WE SAW THAT, THEN WE'D BE ABLE TO REALLY SEE WHAT THAT DELTA IS, THAT NUMBER OF TRANSFERS GOING UP YEAR BY YEAR AND HELPING US UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT MARKETING NEED IS TO GO BEHIND THAT BECAUSE WE DO HAVE TO PUT SOME EFFORT INTO BRINGING PEOPLE IN, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A EXCELLENT EDUCATION.

I DO FEEL LIKE THAT COULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE THOSE NUMBERS.

I'M ALSO GOING TO JUMP BACK TO WHEN YOU TALKED ABOUT THE NCISD STUDENT CAPTURE AND YOU SAID IT WAS SKEWED BY THE TRANSFER NUMBERS AS WELL.

>> YES.

>> I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THOSE NUMBERS WITHOUT THE TRANSFER NUMBERS IN THERE BECAUSE I'M ALWAYS WONDERING HOW MANY OF THE STUDENTS IN OUR DISTRICT ARE GOING TO PRIVATE SCHOOLS.

>> THAT'S THE DELTA. THE DELTA WOULD BE THE PRIVATE SCHOOL AND THE HOME SCHOOL.

THE HOME SCHOOL PIECE IS THE ONE THAT'S HARD TO QUANTIFY.

WE CAN GET FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE PRIVATE SCHOOL, BUT THAT'S THE DELTA IS THE HOME SCHOOL, THE BIG DELTA.

>> IS IT POSSIBLE TO GET HISTORICAL DATA ON THAT OR THIS IS FOR 2020, OR 2023? [OVERLAPPING]

>> I CAN ONLY DO 2020 AND 2023.

>> BUT I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THOSE NUMBERS.

IS IT POSSIBLE TO SEE THEM BROKEN OUT BY THE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS WITHIN OUR DISTRICT?

>> I DON'T KNOW. [LAUGHTER] IT'S EASY FOR ME TO RUN THE REPORT AT THE DISTRICT LEVEL. I'LL HAVE TO CHECK.

>> THANK YOU. I'D LIKE TO SEE IT WITHOUT THOSE TRANSFERS IN THE DISTRICT.

>> ANY MORE QUESTIONS? THANK YOU, GENTLEMEN.

>> GET SOME FOLLOW-UP. I'LL FOLLOW UP WITH SOME RESPONSE TO THIS.

IT IS INTERESTING TIMES FOR SURE AND IT WAS A PLEASURE DOING WORK WITH YOUR DISTRICT.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU, BOB.

>> JEREMY, YOU'RE STAYING.

>> YES, BUT MY PEN NEEDS AN INK, SO I NEED A NEW PEN. SO I'LL BE BACK.

>> PAUSE FOR AN INK CHANGE HERE. HE'S GOT A PEN.

THE BOARD IS IN RECESS WHILE JEREMY GETS A PEN.

[LAUGHTER] THE BOARD NOW RECONVENES IN OPEN SESSION.

>> THIS IS AN OFFICIAL NCISD PEN.

SO EVERY TIME.

[LAUGHTER]

[7.2 Update from Long-Range Facility Planning Committee]

>> JEREMY IS HERE TO SPEAK TO US ABOUT THE LONG-RANGE FACILITY PLANNING DISTRICT COMMITTEE, YOU ADDED ANOTHER WORD IN THERE.

>> WE DON'T WANT CONFUSION BETWEEN CAMPUS COMMITTEES AND DISTRICT COMMITTEES, TYPICALLY WE THROW THE DISTRICT ON FRONT OF THE LRFPC TYPICALLY.

I WANTED TO GIVE EVERYONE A QUICK UPDATE ON THE DISTRICT LONG-RANGE FACILITY PLANNING COMMITTEE, WHY? BECAUSE WE JUST MET LAST WEEK AND WE HAD OUR KICKOFF MEETING WITH THAT GROUP.

I WILL TELL YOU IT WAS AN EVENTFUL MEETING, BECAUSE REALLY WHILE WE HAVE AN AGENDA, WE HAD TO MAKE INTRODUCTIONS AND GET USED TO HOW WE'RE GOING TO HAVE DIALOGUE AS A GROUP.

I THOUGHT IT WAS A GREAT MEETING, WHY? BECAUSE WE GOT TO MEET EVERYONE, PUT FACES TO NAMES, BUT ALSO TO START SOME OF THAT DIALOGUE THAT'S GOING TO BE SO IMPORTANT AND TRY TO CLEAR UP ANYTHING THAT THE MEMBERS NEEDED TO KNOW AS WE MOVE FORWARD.

I WILL TELL YOU THAT THEY'RE VERY EAGER TO GET STARTED AND I LIKE THAT.

THEY'RE VERY HUNGRY, BUT WE ALSO REVIEWED JUST WHAT THE TIMELINE WOULD BE, WHAT THE ROLE WAS.

OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE A CHARTER WITH THIS COMMITTEE.

JUST LOOKING AT WHAT THEIR CHARGE IS.

UNDERSTANDING THAT CHARGE COULD CHANGE OVER TIME WITH BOARD DIRECTION, BUT UNDERSTANDING THAT OUR CAMPUS COMMITTEES HAVE STARTED, WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE CAMPUS COMMITTEES OVER THE SPRING TRYING TO SET THE EXPECTATION THAT THE HEAVY LIFTING WITH THIS COMMITTEE WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT SCHOOL YEAR DURING THE FALL, ONCE WE HAVE ALL OF OUR FINDINGS FROM OUR CAMPUS COMMITTEES

[01:05:01]

WE WANTED TO JUST HAVE THIS AS A MEETING JUST TO EXPRESS ANY QUESTIONS, ANY EXCITEMENT.

WE GOT ALL OF THAT.

I THOUGHT IT WAS VERY PRODUCTIVE MEETING.

BUT HERE WE HAVE A PICTURE ON THE LEFT COLUMN, WE HAVE OUR COMMITTEE THERE.

THERE'S A COUPLE OF INDIVIDUALS WE NEED TO THROW IN THERE THAT GOT IN A LITTLE AFTER WE STARTED, BUT ALSO YOU'LL SEE US DOWN AT THE BOTTOM.

WE FILLED THIS ROOM, IS ENORMOUS RECTANGLE THAT WE FORMED IN THIS ROOM.

WE HAD SOME GREAT DIALOGUE ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE.

YOU'LL SEE AT THE TOP RIGHT, WE JUST HAD OUR HILL COUNTRY MIDDLE SCHOOL CAMPUS COMMITTEE MEETING JUST YESTERDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO THE HIGH SCHOOL HAS ALREADY MET.

I WILL TELL YOU THAT WE HAVE EVERYONE ON THE CALENDAR; WEST RIDGE MIDDLE SCHOOL MEET ON THE 15TH.

WE'RE ALSO GOING TO FOLLOW UP WITH OUR WEST LAKE HIGH SCHOOL, OUR SUBCOMMITTEES ON THAT SAME DAY.

IT'LL BE A JAM-PACKED DAY OF LONG RANGE PLANNING AND THEN OUR ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES PRINCIPALS ARE WORKING ON ESTABLISHING THOSE COMMITTEES.

WE'RE PLANNING ON MEETING ON THE 5TH OF MARCH TO GET THOSE KICKED OFF.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SPRING SEMESTER, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A WHOLE LOT MORE MEETINGS HAPPENING AND WE'LL PROVIDE THOSE UPDATES WHEN NECESSARY TO MAKE SURE THAT Y'ALL ARE UP TO SPEED ON SOME OF THE DIALOGUE AND THE ACTIVITIES THAT GO ALONG WITH OUR CAMPUS COMMITTEES.

THAT'S MY OVERVIEW HERE TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS THAT YOU MAY HAVE ABOUT THAT.

>> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY REAL QUICK.

LAURA AND DIANE WERE THERE AS OUR BOARD REPS. LAURA, DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS TO SHARE ABOUT A BOARD PERSPECTIVE ON THE MEETING LAST WEEK?

>> THEY'RE VERY EXCITED AND THEY ARE READY TO GO.

I STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE THE RIGHT PEOPLE IN THE ROOM FOR THIS COMMITTEE.

AS WE DID THE INTRODUCTIONS, I WAS IN AWE, ONCE AGAIN, OF OUR COMMUNITY MEMBERS AND ALL THEY BRING TO THE TABLE INTO THIS COMMITTEE.

THEY ARE VERY EXCITED TO GET GOING.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT PROCESS, WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THEY REALLY WANTED TO GET THOSE CO-CHAIRS IN PLACE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO START MOVING.

THEY'RE HUNGRY FOR INFORMATION FROM YOU.

THEY HAD LOTS OF REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION FROM JEREMY.

REALLY ASK A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE BIG PICTURE, THE VISION, AND THE CHARGE.

I'M GLAD THAT OUR CHARGE HAS THAT ROOM FOR FLEXIBILITY AND FOR US TO LOOK AT IT.

IT SHOULD BE SOMETHING WE KEEP IN THE BACK OF OUR HEADS BECAUSE EVERYTHING'S ON THE TABLE WITH THEM.

THEY'RE LOOKING AND EAGER TO LOOK VERY BIG WITH THIS.

THE LAST THING I HAVE TO SAY IS THERE WAS NO HESITANCY WHATSOEVER TO SPEAK THEIR MINDS WITH TWO TRUSTEES IN THE ROOM.

THEY WERE ALL VERY OUTSPOKEN AND INCREDIBLY CANDID. IT WAS GREAT.

>> NICE. THANK YOU. ANY QUESTIONS FROM THE BOARD?

>> I DID GO BACK AND LISTEN TO THE TAPE, AND THE INTRODUCTIONS WERE GREAT.

EVEN THOUGH WE HAD STUDIED THE RESUMES, IT REALLY HELPED ME GET AN IDEA OF THE DIFFERENT SKILLS AND TALENTS THAT WERE BROUGHT TOGETHER, AND IT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.

I WOULD RECOMMEND IT'S WORTH LISTENING TO AT LEAST THAT PART JUST TO BE REMINDED OF THE CALIBER OF THAT GROUP FOR SURE.

>> SURE. QUESTION FOR YOU, JEREMY, AND YOU SAID THAT A LOT OF THE WORK THAT THE MAIN COMMITTEE IS GOING TO DO IS, WELL, IT'LL START GETTING REALLY BUSY IN NEXT FALL AS THE CAMPUS COMMITTEES START TO COME IN, WHAT WILL THEY DO BETWEEN NOW AND THEN? DO YOU HAVE ANY PERSPECTIVE ON THAT YET?

>> YES. THANK YOU, JAMES, FOR SETTING THAT UP.

WHAT WE HAVE TO DO, JUST LIKE ANY COMMITTEE THAT HAS A CHARGE AS LARGE AS THIS COMMITTEE, WE HAVE TO GIVE THEM THE INFORMATION THEY NEED.

THERE'S A LOT OF FOUNDATIONAL INFORMATION THEY NEED BEFORE THEY EVEN GET THE CAMPUS RECOMMENDATIONS AND FINDINGS.

WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK THAT WE PRESENTED IN OUR WORKSHOP, JUST ALL OF OUR FINDINGS AND DIRECTIONS, AND THEN ALSO THE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT.

MY GOAL IS TO BRING BOB BACK WITH THAT GROUP AND JUST DEEP DIVE INTO DATA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO HAVING A WORKING MEETING WITH THAT ON THE FINANCE SIDE AND MAKING SURE THAT THEY UNDERSTAND CURRENT STATE OF FINANCES WITHIN THE DISTRICT, BUT ALSO IMPLICATIONS FOR BONDS.

BECAUSE OUR LONG RANGE PLAN IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT, A LOT OF DISTRICTS DO LONG RANGE PLANNING BECAUSE THEY'RE GROWING.

WE'RE DOING LONG RANGE PLANNING BECAUSE

[01:10:02]

WE'RE GOING TO EDUCATE THIS COMMITTEE, GIVING THEM ALL THAT BACKGROUND INFORMATION.

WHEN THEY DO GET THAT FROM THE CAMPUS COMMITTEES, THEY'RE READY TO GO, AND WE DON'T HAVE SOME OF THOSE QUESTIONS COME UP.

THEY CAN JUST HIT THE GROUND RUNNING AS QUICKLY AS THEY FEEL FIT.

>> PERFECT. THANK YOU. OTHER TOPICS? DURING THE BUSINESS SECTION OF THE MEETING, WE'LL HAVE A MOTION TO APPOINT CO-CHAIRS, BUT THAT BEGINS WITH A MOTION IF THE BOARD WANTED TO DISCUSS THE CANDIDATES AND SUCH HERE NOW BASED ON NUMBER, WE COULD DO THAT DURING THIS.

BUT ALSO THERE WAS AN EMAIL EARLIER TODAY THAT YOU SENT US BACK OUT THE SUMMARY OF THE VOTES THE BOARD DID.

EVERYONE SAW THAT, I HOPE? GOT IT.

ANY NEED FOR DISCUSSION HERE ON THIS? THANK YOU. I THINK THAT'S IT THEN.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU. WE WILL NOW MOVE INTO THE ACTION AND DISCUSSION SECTION OF THE MEETING.

[8.1 Request to Approve the Appointment of District Long-Range Facility Planning Co-Chairs]

DO I HAVE A MOTION? HEATHER.

>> I MOVE THAT THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES APPROVE MEMBER NUMBER CC1 AND MEMBER NUMBER CC2 AS THE DISTRICT LONG RANGE FACILITY PLANNING CO-CHAIRS.

>> MOTION BY HEATHER.

IS THERE A SECOND? MOTION BY HEATHER, SECOND BY JANE. ANY DISCUSSION? WHAT?

>> IT WAS EXCITING TO SEE THAT WE HAD MULTIPLE PEOPLE EAGER TO STEP UP INTO THIS ROLE.

AGAIN, JUST AS IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PUT THIS COMMITTEE TOGETHER AND SELECTING TWO TO LEAD THE TEAM FOR THIS NEXT YEAR WAS NOT EASY, AND I AM APPRECIATIVE THAT EVERYONE WHO PUT THEIR NAME FORWARD DID.

>> YEAH, I AGREE WITH THAT. JUST AS A POINT OF CLARIFICATION, THE CHARTER SAYS THE BOARD WILL CHOOSE TO CO-CHAIRS THE FIRST YEAR AND THEN AFTER THAT THE COMMITTEE WILL DO THEIR OWN SELECTION.

THEY MAY CHOOSE TO KEEP THE SAME BUT AS TO WHAT WE'RE DOING HERE RIGHT NOW. ANY MORE DISCUSSION? DO WE NEED NAMES OR ARE WE OKAY WITH NUMBERS? MOTION HAS BEEN MADE AND SECONDED.

ALL THOSE IN FAVOR SAY AYE. ANY OPPOSED? THE MOTION PASSES 7, 0.

NEXT ITEM IS A REQUEST TO APPROVE 2019 BOND PROGRAM SCOPE CHANGES.

[8.2 Request to Approve 2019 Bond Program Scope Changes]

>> I MOVE THAT THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES ACCEPT THE 2019 BOND OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATION FOR 2019 BOND SCOPE CHANGES AS SHOWN IN THE POSTING.

>> MOTION BY ELLEN. SECOND BY KIM.

ANY DISCUSSION, TRUSTEES? ALL THOSE IN FAVOR OF THE MOTION AYE.

ANY OPPOSED? THE MOTION PASSES 7, 0.

[8.3 Request to Approve 2019 Bond Program Use of Unallocated Funds]

DO I HAVE A MOTION? KIM.

>> I MOVE THAT THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES ACCEPT THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE 2019 BOND OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE TO EARMARK THE REMAINING UNALLOCATED FUNDS FROM THE 2019 BOND, APPROXIMATELY 2,800,000 FOR PROJECTS THAT MAY COME UP IN THE AREAS OF SAFETY AND SECURITY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION, STUDENT PROGRAMS AND SUPPORT, AND FACILITIES THAT WOULD FIT UNDER EXISTING 2019 BOND CATEGORIES.

>> THANK YOU. MOTION BY KIM? DO I HAVE A SECOND? SECOND BY ELLEN. ANY DISCUSSION, TRUSTEES? ELLEN.

>> I JUST LIKE TO COMPLIMENT THE BOC.

I THOUGHT THIS WAS A VERY WISE WAY OF GIVING RESOURCES INTO THE POOL FOR THINGS THAT WE KNOW WILL BE NECESSARY BUT ARE IDENTIFIED.

I THOUGHT IT WAS A VERY PROACTIVE GESTURE ON THEIR PART.

>> IF I COULD ADD TO A CREDIT TO THE BOC AND ALSO TO CHRIS SCOTT AND HIS DEPARTMENT.

THE 2019 BOND CAME IN UNDER BUDGET.

IN ADDITION TO THAT, THE WAY THE BONDS WERE MANAGED EARNED SUFFICIENT INTEREST SO THAT WE COULD ALLOCATE THIS AMOUNT OF MONEY.

IT WAS A VERY WELL DONE REFERENDUM.

>> I AGREE. MOTION HAS BEEN MADE.

[01:15:03]

[9. CONSENT AGENDA]

>> I MOVED TO APPROVE THE CONSENT AGENDA AS POSTED.

>> MOTION BY ELLEN. DO I HAVE A SECOND? SECOND BY LAURA. ANY DISCUSSION, TRUSTEE? YES, HEATHER.

>> I WOULD JUST LIKE TO THANK MOLLY AND HER TEAM FOR DOING SOME IN DEPTH RESEARCH ON THE PHONICS PROGRAM AND I FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR WORK ON THAT.

>> ELLEN.

>> I APPRECIATED THAT EXPLANATION AS WELL, AND I WOULD ASK THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE TO CONSIDER HAVING AN AGENDA ITEM AT SOME POINT THAT GIVES A REPORT ON HOW WE HAVE CONVERTED TO THE PHONETIC CURRICULUM ACROSS OUR READING PROGRAM.

WE COULD CUE THAT UP AT SOME POINT, PLEASE.

>> THANK YOU, ELLEN. ALL THESE THINGS ARE GREAT AND I'M GRATEFUL FOR THESE, ESPECIALLY THESE NEW THINGS COMING INTO OUR DISTRICT.

I'M EXCITED ABOUT THE SEMI TRAILER FOR THE USE BY THE WESTLAKE HIGH SCHOOL BAND TO GO WITH OUR FANCY NEW SEMI TRACTOR OVER THERE.

I'VE ALMOST BEEN INJURED BY THAT TRAILER MANY TIMES, LOADING AND UNLOADING.

MOTION HAS BEEN MADE AND SECONDED.

ALL THOSE IN FAVOR OF THE MOTION SAY AYE.

ANY OPPOSED? MOTION PASSES 7, 0.

[10. UPCOMING MEETINGS]

WE HAVE A REGULAR MEETING ON FEBRUARY 20TH AND A STUDY SESSION ON MARCH 5TH.

AT THIS TIME, AT 08:18, THE BOARD STANDS ADJOURNED.

* This transcript was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.